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| June 14, 2011 |
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| Vote of No Confidence Leads to Grand Coalition |
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The ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was shaken June 1 with a danger of falling apart, but on the following day Prime Minister Kan Naoto abruptly expressed his intention to quit and survived the no confidence motion against him. The DPJ, practically, keeps clinging to the governing status. As the DPJ's fusses are disclosed, we see now a trend toward a grand coalition. Obviously people are quelled. Let's look at what happens in the background.
CONFUSIONS OVER GOVERNABILITY - PEOPLE ARE LEFT AS OUTSIDERS
Former Premier Hatoyama Yukio criticized the incumbent leader as 'a swindler', though both of them belong to the same party, DPJ.
Premier Kan's close associates have voiced concertedly about his early resignation to propose a grand coalition for a certain reason; maybe they feel ashamed. It is the fifth round of alteration of those prime ministers who served shorter than a year. The first week of June has passed with bustles exceeding usual political turmoil.
People's Anxiety Ignored
Where will a political reorganization go? How will a grand coalition be formulated? Who are players in the political scene? These questions probably make easy conversations lively: in both of the ruling DPJ and the opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Mr. Ozawa, heavyweight of the DPJ, has anti-Ozawa and pro-Ozawa lawmakers, and Premier Kan does anti-Kans and pro-Kans. Both parties have young and experienced politicians. Coalition types vary.
As far as people are concerned, however, the topic is not simple as in the carefree conversations. What will happen tomorrow in the state politics? Grand coalition, whether it may formulate a single cabinet or need outside cooperation, will be a temporary one and work on 'recovery' from the aftermath of disaster, but it will prepare for a solid basis to raise the consumption tax rate.
Intense deals are going to reach a conclusion on new Prime Minister, but another crucial point is general election. When? It cannot be separated from a choice of the top government leader. It is anticipated that general elections will be set early next year after the Diet is dissolved, affected by the internal conflicts of both of the DPJ and the LDP. In parallel, a new political framework will be built up. Political chaos will deepen, being put aside the rights to survive of disaster-stricken people and terrible consequences of radioactive impacts inflicted on us all.
Today, different from the past years, political forces do not vie, relying on the class compositions of society. Even politicians themselves are unable to foresee changes and go this way and that. That is unprecedented.
This phenomenon implies the severest crisis of capitalist world that it has ever experienced. Since the so-called Lehman Shock economic depression has been lingering here to provoke financial catastrophe, which collapsed the short-lived governments after the Koizumi Administration.
Meanwhile, the lengthy recession has made the Obama Administration return to choosing a military doctrine and pressed the previous DPJ government led by Premier Hatoyama to dispose Okinawa for the sake of former's hegemony over the world. The nuclear industry was promoted as a tool to activate the economy on the world-wide stage, but the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Power Plant discouraged the plan.
At the Cost of People
An estimated remedy cost for the nuclear crisis, which is assumed as bigger than that of recovery from the earthquakes, will be the same size as the national budget. Who will bear the burden? That is a grave political concern as is seen in the debates to raise the consumption tax rate.
The lingering economic slump and the nuclear calamity, in one way or another, are unprecedented. The government tries to overcome difficulties by way of imposing sacrifices on people: what should be done? How political distrust should be managed so that people's dissatisfaction may not lead to social instability? How should people accept a policy to reduce lawmakers? How the existing prefectures be reorganized to a less number of administrative provinces? How the governing system be transformed? How will be introduced a new, revised constitution?
Politicians lose their way today as they face these obstacles. Looking at the issue from the opposite side, the ruling elites can afford to remain irresolute as they enjoy the far better position than people.
Though citizens reject nuclear power, opinion polls are disastrous: as low as 2% of people support the progressive political parties, even if the Communist Party and the Social-Democratic Party are combined with. It is time for Constitution-supporter forces to get united, overcoming minor differences, to defend the rights of people to survive and scrap nuclear power generation.
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