Prime Minister Abe Shinzo’s original constitutional amendment plan in the Diet is unclear due to the mess coming from the Moritomo Gakuen school scandal. The intention of leadership, however, does not fade away at all. We must take advantage of this opportunity to the maximum height to overturn the administration. Let’s keep pressing the government to abandon presentation of an amendment bill for the Diet debates even after the Abe administration fails.

LET’S KEEP STRUGGLING UNTIL GOVERNMENT GIVES UP CONSTITUTION AMENDMENT!

Premier Abe’s hope gets frustrated by two factors; one is a sharp confidence decline in his cabinet due to the document-tampering over the Moritomo Gakuen’s land deal, and the other is a prospect of détente in the Korean Peninsula with a sign of talks between the United States and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The pro-amendment forces in Japan are well aware of a risk of years of crush if they fail in the referendum.

Changes in the Yomiuri Shinbun Newspaper

Is the Abe administration, which has lost validity, able to achieve a referendum on constitution amendment? – The Yomiuri, a leading advocate of the government initiative, gave an article March 14: the newspaper, which has led social opinions for years toward accepting revision, put a headline on the day, ‘The Moritomo case cast a shadow over the amendment plan’. This is symbolic as it is the first of all the other major newspapers that expressed suspicion on the Abe’s project. Seemingly, the editor advises Premier Abe not to make haste and give up the original plan of the year 2018 and that the topic should be entrusted to the succeeding administration.

The Yomiuri has not involved in the debates of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over the Item 2 of Article Nine. The newspaper was not interested in the logical consequences of discussion as it was convinced that yes-votes will overwhelm in the referendum if it is held at a time when the economic performance is good enough for the cabinet to enjoy a high support rate. Editors believed that amendment would be successful with full mobilization of forces from industries and media to local communities. The Yomiuri, however, put a commentary on the previous day of the LDP congress that emphasized splits inside the party on the Premier Abe’s faulty proposal to maintain Item 2.

Premier has been agitating ‘national crisis’, using the missile and nuclear issues of ‘the North Korea’. He advocates intensification of deterrence power and makes the J-Alert system active as well as propels the construction project of a new military base at Henoko, Okinawa. He has pressed on Republic of Korea in order to disturb approaching of the North and South governments, accusing the initiative as ‘dialogue for dialogue’. Mass media, too, covered the PyeongChang Olympic Games in a cold way, and they joined the government chorus of bashing President Moon Jae-in. Media report will lose reliance if the crisis in the region calms down.

Government is ready for full attack

The impasse in the Abe government gives us time for a break. Its surprise attack has retreated for a while, a tactic it was to wage after paralyzing people’s judgment.

But be careful. Pro-amendment forces rebuild their posture more elaborately.

Though the cabinet faces a lower support rate, the Constitutional Democratic Party, the biggest opposition party, does not enjoy high popularity. Replacement of Abe with a group of Ishiba Shigeru- Koizumi Shinjiro may come, in which logical rationale for a constitutional change process should be set better; deletion of Item 2, which pledges not to possess military potential. The government may attack frontally.

The administration will revive a ‘threat from China’ strategy, replacing with the one of ‘threat from the North’: an assertion that China will overcome Japan by military strength. The former is more convenient to justify construction of aircraft carriers and introduction of missile defense systems. The Japanese government, as it regards the Trump administration’s diplomacy as ‘unforeseeable’ and thinks ‘the US is not reliable’, may step up a posture to have its own nuclear capabilities.

Let’s prepare ourselves during this break that mass movements of ‘No! to Abe Politics’ have spared.

President Moon’s efforts in promoting talks expose irrelevancy of the deterrence theory and prove a fact that military means do not defend peace.

Now many people rigorously watch the politics which cherishes a small group of the establishment. It is the best time for us to disclose a fact that Premier Abe’s driving force of Article Nine amendment aims to use people’s tax money to contribute to military industries.

April 3, 2018