Prime Minister Abe Shinzo stresses amendment of Article Nine of the constitution during the election campaign for leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to be voted on September 20. The faction led by Vice-premier Aso Taro immediately presented the premier a written proposal to ‘hold a referendum before July when the Upper House election is scheduled’. Premier Abe responded speedily, saying that he had the perfectly same idea. He is serious in the decision.

REFERENDUM MAY BE HELD BEFORE JULY

According to a survey conducted late August by the Kyodo News Agency, 36.7% of the questionnaire answerers said in favor of presentation of the LDP’s constitution draft text during the extraordinary session of the Diet in autumn, while 49.0% of them opposed.

Government is ready for anticipated risks

The government will be risky if it loses in the plebiscite, even though it is successful in presenting and approving its draft in the Diet, turning down objections of the opposition parties. Then, the government will not only be obliged to step down. It will spend years and make another effort to restart necessary steps to revise the constitution. The government is intended to hold a referendum though it is well aware of the risks. The government is not motivated by negative causes, like desperately re-writing a new Constitution or evading loss of legitimacy of the administration.

Prime Minister Abe Shinzo may make a bit, taking advantage of the conditions he enjoys. In the Kyodo’s August survey 44.2% of the answerers supported the Abe government, a slight increase, and 43.8% supported the ruling LDP, which is higher by 2.2% compared with that of the last result. As for the Constitutional Democratic Party, on the other hand, it has decreased its supporting rate, falling to 8.8%, below 10% for the first time since its inception. The supporting rate of the pro-amendment political parties, including the Ishin and the Komei, reached 49.4% in the same survey.

Concerning the LDP’s presidential election, Premier Abe is intended to defeat the candidate-contestant, Ishiba Shigeru, overwhelmingly to control the LDP on the line of the Abe-version amendment of Article Nine. Ultra-rightist forces, for instance, the Japan Conference, get united in fully favor of the proposal of Premier, not the Ishiba’s idea, which is to delete the second clause of Article Nine.

As for the Komei, it can be cautious due to its relations with the Soka Gakkai, a Buddhist organization, which highly appreciates peace. But in fact a ‘peace’ orientation does not work. The party recently subdued its Okinawa prefectural association: the local branch is against the plan to transfer the military functions to a base at Henoko. That was its policy for the election of Governor of Okinawa on September 30.

If a referendum is held before July, the Komei will be thrown into harsh campaigns over the constitution in the scheduled April municipal elections across the nation. The party will face a critical stage. It should leave the coalition government at this moment in order to stop the LDP’s amendment initiative. A proverb says, in for a penny, in for a pound. Is the leadership determined to expose the party to risks?

We cannot but be alert, analyzing the current situations.

Let’s look at other points. The referendum law works tremendously in favor of the state power. The Constitutional Democratic Party proposed the Constitution Commissions of the legislature to restrict TV commercials on the referendum, but the ruling coalition rejected. Judging from the Abe’s plan, the LDP may directly, illicitly present the amendment draft even if the Constitution Commissions do not finalize it.

As for advertising regulations, if rules are compiled, they will work only in the months before the plebiscite. An advertising company, Dentsu, is the leading agent of the pro-amendment forces. Different from the Public Election Law, the rules do not limit campaign money nor request financial reports. Wining and dining is allowed. Corruptions prevail easily. A TV campaign is merely a tip of iceberg. All kinds of media can be mobilized, including social networking services. Dentsu will employ celebrities to justify objectives.

As for NHK, the Nippon Hoso Kyokai, a Japanese semi-public broadcasting company, it aired August 27 news of Premier Abe’s declaration to run for the presidential race, telecasting on-the-spot as an urgent TV program. The broadcasting company used Sakura-jima volcano against the background of Premier, a place which symbolizes the Meiji Restoration. The LDP instructs mass media on the coverage of presidential election.

Consent of Majority

The referendum relies on the majority’s assent. Suppose the voting rate is equal to the average rate in the state level elections. If 1/4 of the electorate can be manipulated, Article Nine will be destroyed. That is, if LDP’s MPs and other assembly members, affiliates of the Japan Conference and the Jinja Honcho, or the Association of Shinto Shrines, and leaders of local communities succeed in mobilization of voters.

If the referendum is held separately from the Upper House election, its voting rate cannot be high. Voters may be watched curiously on the way to ballot stations; they are either supporters or opponents. We must not lose our sharpness. Let’s raise public voices so that pro-amendment MPs may hesitate to propose constitution amendment in the Diet.

September 11, 2018