Local elections will be held soon across the country. The events have a special meaning this year. It is because Prime Minister Abe Shinzo will make a decision whether he will present to the Diet a bill to amend the constitution, which he regards as his historic mission, judging from the election results. In other words, these elections will play a key role whether the constitution may be revised or not.

ELECTIONS - MAJOR STRUGGLE TO DEFEND CONSTITUTION AND PEOPLE’S LIFE

Two years or so is left for Prime Minister Abe Shinzo before his tenure ends as President of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). In order to put a bill to alter the constitution for the Diet’s debates it is necessary to control two-thirds of the parliamentary members in both of the Houses. It is anticipated, however, in the July election for the House of Councilors, that the ruling bloc may have difficulties to gain that amount of seats.

If the opposition parties and citizens groups are united effectively to field common candidates as was so in the previous election, the coalition bloc will fail to attain the necessary figure. If the situation goes that way, Premier Abe will not be able to raise the bill in question to the Diet during his tenure as the party president.

Plausible estimation: the government can afford to set a voting day on August 25 at the latest. In other words, if the ruling parties enforce to present the controversial bill for debates before June 27, a referendum may be set on August 25 along the rule to hold a plebiscite in 60 days at the shortest.

One more assumption: the government may just present the bill and set a referendum date later, after the House of Councilors election.

We must get prepared. The Abe government has forced to pass a number of illegitimate laws violating the constitution. It will take the same approach this time, too. The government has overwhelming supremacy in terms of control of time schedule for constitution amendment, financial capacity, TV propaganda and etc.

Another possibility: to hold simultaneous elections for both of the Houses. Without presenting the bill for parliamentary debates, Premier has the right to dissolve the House of Representatives to remove anxiety for the government, which is the planned hike of the consumption tax rate in October, the fundamental issue of the July election in. The administration will employ every possible means for the purpose. The Komeito, a coalition partner of the LDP, is prudent, however, over the amendment process. The political body may be compelled to obey their manager, if the LDP wins in the concurrent elections.

Focus on Governors’ elections

Under these circumstances the coming local elections are crucial so that the government’s tricks cannot work. We see two governorship elections. One is in Hokkaido where an opposition candidate competes against one from the ruling bloc, which is one and only makeup among other nine elections. In any way the opposition forces must be successful.

In the governor’s election in Yamanashi Prefecture held in January, which was regarded as an advance contest of the Upper House election, the incumbent candidate, an affiliate to the Democratic Party, has been defeated. Did win a candidate linked with the coalition. We must learn lessons from tactics the Abe government uses in the elections.

The second is elections to choose Mayor of Osaka City and Governor of Osaka Prefecture. The incumbent mayor and governor have already resigned to be ready to run as candidates, exchanging positions with each other. The two are from the Osaka Ishin-no-kai Party, eager to reorganize Osaka Prefecture into a Tokyo-like administrative unit. If voters succeed in frustrating the urban restructuring plan, to which the party persistently clings, together with the LDP and the Komeito, a wedge is driven into the alliance of the LDP and the Ishin-no-kai over the constitution amendment issue.

Thus, the local elections imply whether the constitution may be revised or not.

Consumption tax should be focused in elections

People feel uneasy on account of a consumption tax rate hike, unstable employment conditions and deteriorated public services, while the Abe government has been unbeaten in the elections to survive. Municipal elections are the closest to people. Let’s talk to citizens weary of politics. Let’s discuss with voters to change politics. Let’s take advantage of the elections.

The New Socialist Party is determined to work actively in the local elections. Let’s win together with party candidates. Let’s win together with associate candidates.

March 19, 2019