On September 11 just before leaving, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo announced his idea on the missile defense plan. It implies acquiring of capabilities to strike adversary’s military bases, thus the premier practically gave instructions to the next administration to review the current national security strategy. That means eventual relinquishment of Article Nine of the constitution, which provides renunciation of a war as a means to settle international conflicts and prohibition of possessing war capabilities.

Hasty debates after abandoning Aegis Ashore interceptors

The Japanese government planned to station the ground-based Aegis Ashore interceptors at the Self Defense Forces bases in Akita and Yamaguchi Prefectures with an assumption that Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) may launch ballistic missiles.

Former Minister of Defense Kono Taro, however, announced June 15 a decision to abandon the plan. The reason was a risk of falling boosters, according to the military official, who added that it would take too much time and cost to resolve technical deficiencies.

Responding to the proclamation of suspension and relevant military strategy changes, the government and the ruling party Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) began to work on feasibility of capabilities to hit a military base of adversaries, which has been maintained by the bloc for years. The government held a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) June 24 to discuss an alternative missile defense policy, confirming the scrapping of the Aegis Ashore program.

Meanwhile the LDP set up a task force, the Team to Debate on Missile Defense Program, to issue a proposal July 31. Receiving the report, ex-Premier Abe told August 4 that he would ‘take tough initiative to fulfill the duty’. The recent remark reconfirmed his determination.

Exclusively Defensive Posture collapsed

A theory to strike enemy’s base emerged in 1956 under the Hatoyama Government. But the idea was rejected virtually by the succeeding governments. The 1970 Fiscal Defense White Paper says: the basic policy lies in an exclusively defensive posture, which affects on equipment and military strategies, with an assumption that Japan might be targeted of aggression.

It continues: to prohibit possession of assault-type aircraft carriers and long-range bombers and to entail on removal of in-flight refueling component of aircraft. Later in the first decade of 2000, however, the theory reemerged during the debates participated by both ruling and opposition parties to cope with missile firing tests conducted by DPRK. As the recent government’s explanations are unprecedentedly pragmatic, they step into a constitutionally forbidden domain.

A few ministers will work

The LDP’s proposal specifies; if a possibility is judged to be fairly high that Japan should be hit by an adversary, the country would launch a first strike at the moment when the adversary should start on military offensive. The document says the DPRK possesses hundreds of ballistic missiles that may cover the entire archipelagoes of Japan within the range.

A first strike will trigger a full-scale war. According to the government’s plan, only nine ministers in the NSC would involve in the information analysis and judgment process, which is a risky, flawed design.

A key is to work diplomatically so that Japan may not have an enemy, relying on the constitution: to keep an exclusively defensive stance instead of provoking tensions in vain in the Eastern Asian region.

October 6, 2020